Gabon: AU Urged to Take Action in Curbing Spread of Coup Contagion

Charlie Robertson, head of macro strategy at FIM Partners UK Ltd, has called on the African Union to take action in order to prevent the spread of coups across the continent.

This comes after a recent coup in Gabon, which is part of a series of coups that have occurred in Africa in recent years.

- Advertisement -

Just last month, soldiers in Niger overthrew Mohamed Bazoum, the first democratically elected president to succeed another in the country.

Robertson believes that the coup in Gabon marks a significant escalation in the trend of coups in Africa.

- Advertisement -

“At last a coup has happened which financial markets actually care about – because Gabon has outstanding Eurobonds whose prices have dived this morning,” he said. “The price of the 2025 Gabon Eurobond has been marked down by traders by 10 percent, from 93 cents to 84 cents (up slightly from 79-82 cent range two hours ago).”

READ ALSO: Gabon president under house arrest — Coup leaders

Until now, Africa’s recent spate of coups have all been driven by the same structural theme – which is illiteracy, according to Robertson.

“Countries with less than 40% adult literacy can’t grow sustainably, so political leaders cannot remain popular, which means they are always vulnerable to coups,” the former global chief economist at Renaissance Capital said.

He said low education also helps explain the conflict in Ethiopia, Sudan, as well as the coup in Burkina Faso. “Low literacy countries tend not to borrow from international markets.”

He said: “Gabon’s coup is strikingly different because it’s in a high literacy country, which is relatively wealthy in per capita GDP terms, at $9,000 in 2023, 10 times that of more coup-vulnerable countries like Mali.

“Of course that wealth is not spread equally – but if coups were driven by inequality, we’d be saying hello to the new president Colonel ‘I know best’ in South Africa and Brazil too.”