The VP’s Religion: An Alternative View By Bolu John Folayan

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By Bolu John Folayan, PhD
I like to make my humble contribution to the current simmering political discourse on the selection of a running mate by the Presidential candidates of the two major political parties, APC and PDP.
PDP’s Atiku Abubakar’s choice looks straightforward enough as he will definitely pick one from the south. But the likely choice of APC’s Bola Tinubu is the one drawing much speculation and controversy.
I note the trend of some arguments that Tinubu, a Muslim, should pick another Muslim as VP, ostensibly to capture the hefty votes in the NE and NW. Let me say that, that would be suicidal for him. If Tinubu makes that mistake, Atiku will trounce him hands down at the general elections in 2023.
Below are my points of argument…
1. The common theory is that the average NE and NW voter prefers to vote for a Muslim President. That’s the reality. My view is that Tinubu, being a Muslim, already meets this requirement. Picking Zulum, Shetima or any other Muslim Northerner as his VP does not add religious value to the equation. What remains to be done is proper strategic communication by APC to drive home the point to voters in NE or NW that their religious interests are already well protected by a Muslim President and they really do not need another Muslim as VP.
2. Now, let’s look at the numbers.
The Middlebelt is roughly 50-50 between Christians and Muslims. SE and SS are about 90 percent Christians just as NE and NW are over 80 percent Muslims. If Tinubu picks a Muslim VP, he leaves the SE and SS completely open for Atiku. The SW is a battleground already. Atiku will get not less than 40 percent of SW votes. (Remember that he got over 700,000 votes from Lagos in the 2018 election). If NE, NW, NC, and SW votes are spilt and Atiku cleans up SS and SE, he wins the election.
3. Tinubu must avoid being accused of pursuing an Islamization Agenda by the Christians. Nigeria has changed remarkably since the Muslim/Muslim ticket of Abiola/Kingibe worked in 1993. Even military governments before and after then were religiously and regionally balanced………Obasanjo/Yar Adua; IBB/Aikhomu+Ukiwe; Abacha/Akhigbe+Diya. How much more is a democratic government?
4. Consider these scenarios confronting a Christian voter…Tinubu/Zulum versus Atiku/Wike; Tinubu/Shetima versus Atiku/Obi. Why wouldn’t a Christian vote “religiously”, given those choices?
How will Tinubu/Zulum stand on the podium to campaign in Enugu, Makurdi, Port Harcourt, and Akure and sell the idea of a Muslim/Muslim ticket? For most Christians, the VP may not even be a Pastor like Osinbajo. But being Christian will give them a sense of inclusivity.
5. By the way, are there no Christians of political value and substance in the North if it’s all about that? If religion does matter so much to the voters in the Muslim North, why would it not matter to voters in the Christian South? It does! The Nigerian Christians can also be very discriminatory, even if they do it subtly. Tinubu must not take them for granted.
7. What will win the votes for Tinubu in the NW and NE are the people working for him, not the VP candidate, per se. Osinbajo was a virtual unknown as Buhari’s running mate in 2015, but Buhari still defeated a seating, President Jonathan. Buhari,  El Rufai, Ganduje, Shetima, and other northern Governors should deliver their region’s votes in NE and NW to Tinubu while his Christian VP candidate will deliver votes from NC, SE, and SS. Tinubu himself will deliver SW and have s a good chance of winning the elections.
 8. My Recommendation to Tinubu is for him to pick a female Christian from the Middle Belt or the North. Unless Buhari and the Northern governors do not work hard enough for him, he can still win enough votes in the core north without picking his  VP from there.
I am a Christian. I know the mindset of the average Nigerian Christian. All these talks about Tinubu’s wife being a pastor, or that she started Christian fellowship in Lagos Secretariat won’t matter to us. If Tinubu tries to run on a Muslim/Muslim ticket, he should simply forget the Christian block vote.
And, if he loses that block vote, he will need a miracle to become President.

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